Coffee Market News
After 43 days, the most protracted federal shutdown in U.S. history has finally ended. But the hangover persists. A backlog of unreleased economic data now casts doubt on the accuracy of forthcoming indicators, leaving global markets wary ahead of the next wave of American releases.
Adding to the uncertainty, the U.S. President has moved to roll back tariffs on more than 200 food products—including coffee—as inflationary pressures at the checkout counter intensify. What remains conspicuously absent, however, is clarity: Washington has yet to specify the scale of the tariff cuts or whether they will be applied universally, raising suspicion that the announcement may double as a fresh negotiating lever in trade diplomacy.
Meanwhile, at COP30—held in Brazil's Belém, deep in the Amazon—delegates from governments, research institutes and global industries trained their attention on implementation rather than grand declarations. Scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research underscored the push to anchor planetary-boundary science in concrete policy and supply-chain practice.
This year's summit placed agricultural commodities, coffee among them, at centre stage. Debates over deforestation-linked supply chains, border carbon adjustments and broader reform of food systems dominated proceedings. For the coffee sector the message was unmistakable: climate risk, regulatory tightening and value-chain restructuring have moved from peripheral concerns to existential ones.
Yet even as climate-policy rhetoric sharpens, Europe's regulatory machinery remains mired in hesitation. The EU's deforestation regulation (EUDR), scheduled to take effect soon, has entered another round of political turbulence. The European Commission's latest proposal faces growing resistance from member states—Germany among the loudest—calling for a broader postponement and a more fundamental "review" before the measure is allowed to take hold.
This mixture of jittery consumers, tariff ambiguity and EUDR zig-zag-bureaucrazy has left clear fingerprints on futures markets in New York and London. Weather developments, by contrast, offered some relief. Brazil's main coffee regions continue to receive generous rainfall, supporting next season's prospects, and Vietnam appears to have escaped the worst of two recent typhoons, with only minor delays to its Robusta harvest.
Arabica prices in New York swung through a broad 34-cent range as traders digested shifting tariff expectations and executed the seasonal reshuffling of positions ahead of First Notice Day. Pension funds, hedge funds, speculators and industry players alike rolled exposure from the December 2025 contract (KCZ25) into March 2026 (KCH26). The market ended the week 2% lower, with December settling at 399.80 c/lb. March 2026 now becomes the reference month.
Robusta in London endured an even more animated week. Prices retreated by more than 9%, closing at 4,223 USD/MT. With harvesting resuming after the Typhoons in Vietnam, analysts expect recent weather-related delays to be absorbed swiftly.
You will find all coffee-relevant information in the following table. We update it weekly.

News from Origin: South America
Brazil
Hopes of a breakthrough in U.S.–Brazil relations are rising. After several rounds of discussions, including a recent meeting between the Brazilian president and his U.S. counterpart at an international summit, attention has turned to the possibility of easing or removing the 50 % U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee imports. According to commentary in market outlets, the tariff burden remains a principal factor behind constrained demand for Brazilian coffee in the United States, and any change could materially shift export flows and pricing dynamics.
At the same time, global forecasts point to sizeable supply ahead. Analysts anticipate a stronger Brazilian output in the next cycle, which combined with steady rainfall, is fuelling expectations of a near-record crop — though not necessarily a historic peak. This backdrop, of a potentially abundant supply and trade uncertainty, is contributing to the muted trading tone.
Activities are running slightly after schedule at the port of Santos. Delays to be expected.
Colombia
According to official and market data, the country appears to have achieved its best harvest in over three decades in the season to September 2025, with output estimated at around 14.87 million 60-kg bags—up roughly 17 % (Oct-24 to Sep-25). The surge reflects a favorable confluence of improved agronomic practices, renewed plantings, and postive weather during key stages.
While this boom strengthens Colombia's standing in the global Arabica market, it is tempered by anticipation of a downturn. The National Coffee Federation (FNC) expects the 2025/26 cycle to yield closer to 12.5 million bags, citing a natural re-setting of tree productivity following a strong cycle, and heavy rainfall that may have disrupted flowering.
On the agronomic front, while extended rainfall has characterized parts of the growing regions, the exact pattern is mixed. For example, some rainfall indices show precipitation in key producing areas falling below 1991-2020 averages in September. Disease pressure remains relatively contained: in early 2025 one official source placed national average prevalence of leaf rust (roya) at about 5.7 % and coffee borer infestation (broca) at 2.2 %.
The market implication of this dual-dynamic (recent strong production, imminent moderation) is significant. A large crop normally exerts downward pressure on pricing and differentials, yet the expectation of a tighter 2025/26 cycle gives buyers and sellers pause. Exporters are reportedly asking higher premiums and delaying forward fixed-price contracts, while growers are weighing whether to lock in sales now or wait for a possible rebound. Meanwhile, the global Arabica complex remains volatile, adding another layer of uncertainty.
No significant news from the ports of Buenaventura (Pacific) and Cartagena (Caribbean).
Peru
In Lima and the port-city of Callao, an interim government has declared a 30-day state of emergency in response to a surge in violent crime and widespread protests. The decree authorizes deployment of the armed forces alongside police and imposes checks and restrictions in key transit zones. Crucially for the coffee sector, Callao is Peru's main maritime gateway—and the current unrest has already begun to disrupt movements in and out of the port.
For the coffee harvest, the implications are two-fold. First, the main crop is effectively complete, the window for prompt exports is closing. Second, any disruptions at ports or inland transport—stemming from road blockades, security checks or labour disturbances—could lead to backlogs, additional storage costs, or quality degradation in beans awaiting shipment.
On the production front, Peru's next crop is forecast at roughly 4.2 million 60-kg bags for the 2025/26 marketing year, an improvement of about 8 % compared with last year. This indicates that despite the broader social and security upheavals, the agronomic fundamentals remain intact—though smallholder farmers continue to face constraints such as credit access, ageing trees, and infrastructure bottlenecks
Production Estimates for South America













































































