General Coffee News
The era of diplomatic nuance appears, for now, to have drawn to a close. What had been negotiated for months through discreet back channels has erupted into open confrontation. The United States and Israel have translated their threats against Iran into military action. According to reports, senior figures within Iran's ruling establishment were killed in the strikes, among them their supreme leader Ali Khamenei.
Military logic rarely tolerates pause. Further missile exchanges are widely considered likely. Hopes for swift de-escalation are understandable — yet, from a strategic perspective, not particularly robust.
The first consequences are visible not on the battlefield, but at sea. Maersk, the Danish shipping giant, has become the first major liner operator to suspend its routes through the Red Sea. Containers from East Africa that had recently resumed faster transit to Europe via the Suez Canal are once again being rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. An additional two to three weeks in transit is no abstract figure. It means capital tied up longer, rising insurance premiums and higher freight rates.
Energy markets have reacted in parallel. Brent crude jumped by roughly 10%. The key question is whether this represents speculative overshooting — or whether a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could inflict lasting damage on the global energy architecture. Roughly one fifth of the world's oil trade passes through this narrow corridor. A sustained disruption would reverberate far beyond the Middle East.
And the coffee market?
Here begins the second layer of the story.
For weeks the central question was how deeply geopolitical tensions would permeate commodity markets as a whole. The emerging picture is more nuanced. While energy prices have proved highly sensitive, coffee has thus far displayed notable resilience. The fundamentals are speaking in a sober tone.
In Brazil and Vietnam, harvest projections point to solid volumes. Central America is reporting record shipment levels. The supply tightness that defined recent seasons is gradually easing.
Since the start of the year, Arabica prices have fallen by around 25%. Last week the market touched a new six-month low at 275.35 c/lb before closing at 280.75 c/lb — a moderate weekly decline of 1.7%. In London, Robusta traded with similar composure: after marking a new six-month low at USD 3,517 per metric ton, the week ended at USD 3,624/MT (+0.9%).
Yet the true tension lies deeper.
Geopolitical crises may trigger short-term price movements. But longer-term forces continue to operate in the background — often more quietly, yet with greater persistence. A recent study published in Nature Ecology & Evolution highlights the accelerating warming of the world's oceans. The oceans are the planet's largest heat reservoir. Rising temperatures, however, reduce marine biomass and destabilise ecosystems. Biodiversity loss is not an isolated environmental issue; it is a structural risk factor for global supply chains — including agricultural commodities, and thus coffee itself.
At this point, the market's internal conflict becomes clearer. Initially, the dominant question was: how do we react to the next shock?
Gradually, a more fundamental insight is emerging: what ultimately matters is not the individual geopolitical jolt, but the structural resilience of the system.
Coffee remains an agricultural commodity — vulnerable to weather extremes, geopolitical disruptions and financing conditions. Yet for now, the market exhibits remarkable stability.
Perhaps that is the more important lesson of this week: not every crisis translates immediately into a price spike. Markets discriminate.
And that is precisely what we will continue to observe.
The table below contains the most relevant coffee market indicators and is updated weekly.

Origin News: East Africa
Ethiopia
As if there wasn't enough unrest going on in the world, tensions are escalating between the Ethiopian Government, the northern Tigray region, and neighboring Eritrea. This friction threatens a return to deadly conflict just three years after the previous war concluded—a devastating prospect for a region where past hostilities have already claimed thousands of lives and risked disrupting critical operations along the Red Sea.
While the political landscape remains volatile, weather conditions have been far more stable, remaining dry and sunny.
Moving to coffee: the AFCA tradeshow recently took place in Addis Ababa, bringing together coffee farmers, cooperatives, machinery manufacturers, roasters, and green coffee buyers. Philip von der Goltz, Managing Partner at L+B, attended the event and returned with insightful updates from the tradeshow and his visits to local partners – read more about his trip here.
As for the 2025/2026 harvest, Ethiopia has now wrapped up the season. Prices have remained high, and with washed coffees in short supply this year, they have become quite scarce and expensive, particularly in parts of Sidama, Yirgacheffe and Guji.
Kenya
Kenya is gradually transitioning into its rainy season, with the past week already characterized by heavy rainfall across the country. This shift brings much-needed relief following a dry and hot period. Next main crop flowering has also been reported.
Having had an early start, the main harvest season in Kenya has concluded. While dry mills remain operational, activity is beginning to taper off, and the volume of coffee flowing into Nairobi is gradually decreasing. Due to previous heatwaves, there are concerns regarding water stress on the plants and its subsequent impact on quality.
Total production is reported to be slightly higher this year and also the quality remains strong. We have cupped exceptional coffees from the Nyeri, Murang'a, and Kirinyaga regions and are glad to report excellent quality. We are expecting the first shipments to reach us throughout the month.
Regarding logistics, the Port of Mombasa continues to face congestion, with a shortage of trucks and containers. These bottlenecks are causing inevitable delays for shipments from Kenya and neighboring countries that rely on Mombasa for their exports.
Tanzania
Tanzania was also present at AFCA, where it was recognized as Africa's leading producer of certified coffees. On a global scale, Tanzania now ranks fourth, only behind Brazil, Peru, and Mexico.
Moving to weather, conditions across the country have remained generally warm and humid as the region transitions into its rainy period.
As for coffee, Tanzania's current harvest is largely complete. Attention is now shifting toward the upcoming harvest. Farmers are closely monitoring the rain patterns, which are currently supporting plant health and cherry development.
Logistically, the Port of Dar es Salaam is experiencing notable bottlenecks. Delays are persisting due to a limited availability of 20ft containers.
Rwanda
Like Uganda and Tanzania, Rwanda has also seen some rain, as it is entering its rainy season.
The 2026 coffee harvest has begun in the Southern and Western Regions. Coffee cherries are being handpicked and delivered to purchasing points and washing stations, with harvest activities expected to continue through July. Overall, Rwanda's harvest is projected to be slightly lower this season. However, quality is expected to remain strong.
Uganda
Uganda has seen some consistent rain throughout February, supporting good plant health and flowering for the upcoming Robusta harvest.
The 2025/2026 Robusta harvest is largely complete, with coffee flow into Kampala naturally decreasing. Local prices have been quite volatile in line with market prices in London.
As for Arabica, harvest activities have begun in the west.
East Africa - Coffee Production Estimates





































































































