Coffee Market News
by Philip von der Goltz
Happy Easter! While stopping at the supermarket around the corner to pick up chocolate for our family gathering, something caught my eye at the checkout: Easter bunnies from Milka, Lindt and the like are in some cases more than 29% more expensive than they were a year ago. The sparkling wine in my cart suddenly looked almost cheap. And this increase in the cost of Easter bunnies came in spite of the fact that international cocoa prices have fallen by more than 75% from their record highs at 12.500 USD/MT.
What's remarkable is not just the price itself but how quickly we get used to such charges. We can complain in the beginning. Reach for a cheaper alternative if there is one. But new and higher prices often settle in and people buy at that price point. It is much the same with petrol and diesel these days: We may drive a little more carefully, avoid the occasional unnecessary trip, but in the end, we still pay the higher prices. After a while, even prices that initially felt painful start to become the new normal.
Why is that?
Psychologically, this dynamic reflects how we adapt to new realities surprisingly quickly—not only when it comes to prices but with income, with living standards, and with our consumption habits. What first feels like a burden or, conversely, a gain, gradually loses its emotional sharpness. The new situation becomes normal.
Part of this can be explained by the so-called anchoring effect. We unconsciously orient ourselves around a reference point, an internal anchor price, say. If a product cost 9.50 EUR yesterday and 11.50 EUR today, that new price initially feels wrong or excessive. But if it stays there for a while, the anchor shifts. Suddenly, 11.50 EUR starts to feel normal.
Time also plays an important role. The longer the time gap following the original price jump, the less friction you feel. Step by step, the deviation from the old normal is turned into a new standard. NASA researchers have described a similar phenomenon as "normalization of deviance": small, gradual changes eventually stop being seen as deviations at all and instead come to be regarded as perfectly normal.
We can see a very similar pattern in the coffee industry.
Green coffee prices have been moving at record-high levels for the past three years. In February and October 2025, new all-time highs above 430 c/lb were recorded. And yet today, many are already talking about relief, even though Arabica in New York is still trading above 300 c/lb. The historic average moves between 120- to 140c/lb. That alone shows how quickly even extreme price levels can become normalized in perception.
From a historical perspective, this is quite remarkable. Since price records began on the New York coffee exchange, there have only been a handful of episodes in which such a high price level was reached – notably in April 1977, May 1997, and May 2011. Even more striking is the fact that periods above the 300 c/lb mark were usually short-lived in the past. In the current cycle, however, the market has remained largely above that level since November 2024. Yes, there have been temporary setbacks – for example in July and August 2025, and again in February and March of this year, when prices briefly dipped just below 300 c/lb – but the broader picture remains tight. The market is inverted and still appears structurally firm.
The same can be seen during the past trading week. In a short trading week, Arabica prices meandered around the 300 c/lb levels and eventually closed with a slight 2,1% loss at 295,40 c/lb. In London, Robusta prices fell on Monday and then behaved in a similar way as in New York. After a short trading week prices settled for the May-26 contract on Friday with a minus of 4% at 3.448 USD/MT.
So what does this mean in practical terms for roasters?
First: timing matters. A single large price jump often creates significant resistance among customers. Several smaller adjustments, communicated clearly and understandably, are usually accepted more easily. Not because they are objectively more pleasant – but because they feel less abrupt psychologically.
Second: transparency helps. The high price environment is real. It should be communicated exactly that way to the end consumer. Green coffee is still trading at historically extreme levels. At the same time, there are no clear signs of a fast and lasting easing in the market. The good Brazilian crop is likely to materialize more visibly in the physical market later, in the second half of the year. Until then, supply will likely remain tight. On top of that, logistical stress continues, especially for shipments out of East Africa.
Third: context helps sell the price. End consumers are far more likely to accept higher prices when they understand that these increases are not simply arbitrary margin expansion but the result of real market conditions: tight availability, high exchange prices, logistical challenges, and continued uncertainty on the supply side.
And what else can one do?
Over the coming days, I will probably get back on my bike a little more often. The spring weather practically invites it—not only to ease the burden of fuel costs on the household budget but also to work off at least some of the extra Easter calories from chocolate bunnies and the rest. And perhaps by next Easter, there will be more sparkling wine than chocolate.
In the following overview table, we have updated the most important coffee market information:

Origin News: Asia Pacific
Vietnam
Weather conditions in Vietnam have remained consistently warm and largely dry. This pattern is expected to continue throughout the week, with temperatures reaching up to 38°C in both northern and southern regions of the country.
Meanwhile, Vietnam's Robusta harvest has concluded.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is impacting farmers, as rising fuel and fertilizer costs have increased production expenses. In response, farmers are holding onto their coffee stocks, aiming to offset these higher costs by selling at higher prices.
At the Port of Ho Chi Minh City, operations are progressing slowly, with significant shipping delays being reported.
Indonesia
Indonesia began the month by being struck by a magnitude 7.4 earthquake. The earthquake prompted tsunami alerts not only for Indonesia but also for the Philippines and Malaysia. Fortunately, these warnings have since been dismissed.
In terms of weather, much of the archipelago has been experiencing wet conditions, particularly across Java and Sumatra. However, the country's National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) has warned of a strong El Niño period, which is expected to bring a prolonged and uneven dry season from April to October this year.
Coffee availability remains limited, and prices continue to be volatile.
There are no updates from Lampung.
India
India is currently in its summer season, ahead of the southwest monsoon, which typically begins around June. Forecasts indicate that this year, the country may experience weaker monsoon rainfall, as the El Niño weather pattern could reduce precipitation between June and September.
At present, Kerala and Tamil Nadu are experiencing sunny conditions with scattered rainfall, while Karnataka is expected to be warmer and drier, with temperatures reaching up to 35°C.
Regarding coffee, India's Robusta harvest is largely complete. Good volumes of coffee are flowing with availability not being an issue.
There are no significant updates from the ports of Cochin or Mangalore.
Papua New Guinea
Heavy and persistent rain has been reported across Papua New Guinea, and conditions are expected to remain unchanged this week.
Coffee-wise, there is little going on. Farmers are currently preparing for the upcoming main harvest, which is scheduled to begin in May and continue until around September.
Production Estimates in Asia Pacific














































































































