Coffee Market News
The global economy is showing a cautiously positive tone. According to the World Trade Organization's latest outlook, Asia and Africa are expected to record export growth of around 5.3 percent this year, while North America is projected to contract by 3.1 percent. Europe, too, shows tentative signs of expansion. Stronger export momentum—particularly in Asia—could motivate coffee demand in these markets and absorb some of the high-tariff coffees initially bound for the United States.
The International Monetary Fund projects global GDP growth at 3.2 percent, citing easing trade barriers and resilient private-sector adaptation. The upbeat sentiment coincides with the announcement of a substantial new trade framework between Washington and Beijing—an agreement that could mark the most constructive step in bilateral relations in years.
Financial markets, meanwhile, remain fixated on the U.S. Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision. With mixed economic signals, Chair Jerome Powell faces a delicate balancing act: maintaining monetary restraint without choking growth. Europe's Central Bank's interest rates are expected to remain unchanged.
These economic bright spots stand in stark contrast to the darker backdrop of war and climate crisis. Russia's ongoing assault on Ukraine shows little sign of abating, and scientists warn that the world has reached its first irreversible climate tipping point: the decline of warm-water coral reefs. The contradiction between economic resilience and ecological collapse raises uncomfortable questions about humanity's sense of proportion.
The coffee market, too, reflects this paradox of resilience and fragility. In New York, Arabica futures staged a spectacular rally—driven by nineteen-month-low certified inventories of 466,000 bags and limited origin selling—only to reverse sharply as funds took profits. Prices climbed to a record 437.95 cents per pound before ending the week almost unchanged at 403.00 cents. Robusta followed a similar trajectory, closing 1.3 percent lower at 4,571 USD per ton and remaining firmly within the 4,500–4,600 USD/MT range that has defined recent trading.
Looking ahead, attention turns to Kuala Lumpur, where U.S. President Trump and Brazil's President Lula da Silva met on Saturday. The coffee world will watch closely for any sign that tariffs might be eased—allowing Brazilian beans to flow once again, freely or at least without the "tarifaço", from Santos to U.S. ports.
The following table presents the most relevant weekly coffee indicators.

Origin News: Mexico and Central America
Mexico
Mexico's coffee sector is heading into the 2025/26 season with stability on the horizon. Weather conditions have normalized after an early-year moisture deficit, as well-distributed rains supported proper flowering and fruit set across the main Arabica regions. The government has maintained relative calm on agricultural policy, while farmer cooperatives continue to focus on disease management and export readiness amid EUDR-related uncertainty.
Production is expected to remain flat compared with 2024/25, following a standard harvest cycle. The main picking window will occur between December and January, when more than half of the crop is typically harvested. Pest incidence remains exceptionally low, with Broca infestation rates below 1%, though higher humidity in recent months has slightly raised the alert level for leaf rust.
With balanced weather and consistent quality, exporters anticipate stable export flows through Veracruz and Chiapas ports. No major logistical disruptions are reported, though currency volatility and shipping rate adjustments could influence FOB pricing in the months ahead.
Central America
Political calm across Central America provides a stable backdrop as the 2025/26 coffee cycle begins. Governments in Honduras and other Central American countries have so far maintained low intervention in agricultural markets, though exporters continue to voice concerns about restricted access to financing and the region's preparedness for upcoming EUDR traceability requirements. The new regulation remains a major uncertainty for producers, particularly smallholders who depend on cooperative structures for export documentation and geo-data compliance.
After last year's delayed season, the region's harvest is returning to a more typical rhythm. Picking began in lowland areas in mid-October and is expected to peak between December and January. Improved weather during the first half of the year has supported flowering, fruit set, and cherry ripening. Overall regional output, including Robusta, is projected at around 16.3 million bags, roughly the same as last year. Honduras expects production of 4.9 million bags, almost on par with 2024/25, while Nicaragua's crop is forecast near 2.3 million bags—with a reduction in Matagalpa offset by higher yields in the north. Pest pressure remains low, though agronomists warn that wetter conditions could trigger renewed leaf-rust activity in susceptible varieties.
Exporter sentiment is mixed. Forward demand remains subdued as importers await clearer signals from the ICE Arabica market. Financing constraints are prompting cautious sales strategies.
Weather conditions, meanwhile, remain favorable across the region, supporting expectations of stable quality and conversions.
On the logistics front, port congestion and container availability continue to challenge exporters, especially in Nicaragua's port of Corinto, where delays and booking constraints have persisted. First shipments of SHG qualities from Honduras are expected in December.













































































