General Coffee News
by Philip von der Goltz
Here in Hamburg, construction seems to be everywhere again. This morning, I found myself – once again – stuck in traffic. First on the autobahn, then on the main road towards the city center and then... as if the usual bottleneck at a construction site wouldn't have been enough, a car had broken down right there where the only two remaining lanes merged. Construction workers with their orange jackets and yellow helmets were digging into the road. Cars slowly squeezed past, one by one.
Somewhere between clutch, brake, and a rising sense of irritation, I briefly felt like I was in the opening scene of Falling Down – A Perfectly Normal Day with Michael Douglas.
A trivial moment – but a surprisingly accurate metaphor. Because this is exactly how global supply chains work.
Bottlenecks have existed for a long time – not only on roads, but more importantly on a global scale. In times of crisis, they can trigger systemic supply chain shocks. And these disruptions can have many different causes.
Sometimes it is nature. The 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean destroyed infrastructure and ports across the region. In 2010, the Eyjafjallajökull eruption brought European air traffic to a standstill. More recently, extremely low water levels in the Panama Canal significantly reduced the number of ships able to pass.
Sometimes it is human error. In 2021, a single container vessel – the Ever Given – managed to wedge itself across the Suez Canal, blocking one of the world's most important trade routes for six days. Around 12 percent of global trade was affected. Sometimes it is piracy or asymmetric conflict. Few would have expected that modern-day piracy would still be a real issue, yet from 2014 through 2016 Somali pirates deliberately hijacked vessels in the Red Sea region, and in recent years this has escalated further with attacks by Houthi rebels from Yemen.
Sometimes it is pandemics. We all remember the logistical chaos during COVID-19: ports shutting down, freight rates multiplying, panic buying. A mess.
Most often, however, bottlenecks result from war. From the oil crisis of 1973 and the OPEC embargo to the Iran–Iraq war in the 1980s – when the Strait of Hormuz first emerged as a critical chokepoint – to the Gulf War, where key trade routes, especially for oil, had to be militarily secured, and now, once again, the current escalation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran: at this very moment, around 200 ships are reportedly stuck at this chokepoint, with roughly 20 percent of global oil flows affected.
What we experience in our local traffic jams is known globally as a "chokepoint": a geographic bottleneck through which entire flows of goods must pass. And just like in my morning traffic jam, one single disruption can slow an entire system.
These disruptions occur again and again, through natural forces, through simple human mistakes, through conflict or systemic shocks. But the pattern remains the same.
The real issue is not the existence of bottlenecks but the way we have designed our supply chains. Maximum efficiency through just-in-time logistics has made the global economy fast and cost-effective but also remarkably fragile. Risks such as climate change, geopolitical tensions, and asymmetric warfare make this fragility increasingly visible. When one of the arteries of the global economy gets blocked, pressure builds throughout the entire system.
For the coffee market, this has very concrete implications. Logistics has become one of the most important price-drivers today – right behind weather and interest rates. The effects rarely appear immediately but they are related. Rising energy prices increase transport costs. Longer routes tie up capital. Economic uncertainty feeds directly into prices.
These dynamics tend to show up, after a period of time on the coffee exchanges in New York and London. Over the past week, Arabica price action has been driven mainly by technical factors, with volatility returning but no clear trend emerging. New York moved down by 2,6%, closing Friday at 301,70 c/lb.
On the other hand, the Robusta prices narrowed their trading range, hoovering around 3.600 USD/MT. The May-26 contract (RMK26) ended the week down 1,9% at 3.593 USD/MT.
Fundamentals show a clear picture of relief: Brazil reports excellent harvesting forecasts, Vietnam has completed a strong crop, and only Colombia may face some short-term pressure due to excessive rainfall. The rest of the coffee producing world is pretty confident. Looking into the second half of the year, there should be surplus coffee available to refill stocks.
And yet, one key point remains: Supply only matters if it's either delivered to the coffee exchange or to the roastery.
If logistics fail, even the best harvest becomes irrelevant. And that brings us full circle back to my morning traffic jam.
Roasters with coverage of three to four months should currently be in a comfortable position. Alternatively, having coffees for blending is key in such a situation as it guarantees a degree of flexibility. Roasters can pivot from one quality to another without ultimately changing the cup profile of the final product. Further, this flexibility allows room for adapting to price swings. A single-origin, single estate or very specific coffee quality will make this exercise much more difficult. Blend modulation and adaptation of recipes are a smart solution.
The next bottleneck will not come as a surprise – it will simply arrive faster than expected. What used to be a simple buffer stock in the past needs to be reviewed as a strategic reserve for the future.

Origin News: East Africa
Ethiopia
Ethiopia is currently in its short rainy season, locally known as Belg. Last week, main coffee-producing regions experienced rain and thunderstorms, and similar conditions are expected to continue. These rains are crucial for the flowering window of the upcoming 2026/2027 crop.
Ethiopia is pushing to gain UNESCO Intangible Cultural Heritage status for its coffee ceremony. Dating back to the ninth century, it has been an integral part of Ethiopian hospitality and culture for over 1,000 years. If successful, the Ethiopian coffee ceremony would join Turkish coffee as a UNESCO-designated intangible cultural heritage. Needless to say, this recognition would further elevate Ethiopia's coffee heritage and global reputation, highlighting both its historical significance and cultural value.
The flow of coffee from the interior to Addis Ababa runs smoothly with little interruptions. Dry mills are running at full steam preparing coffee for export. Warehouses are filling up as a mix of lack of adequate container equipment and unassured demand from key markets such as Saudi Arabia.
The adjusted minimum prices should encourage international buyer's interest.
As for logistics, Red Sea shipping diversions continue to limit container availability at Djibouti, causing extended delivery times and higher freight costs. Further, shipping lines are rolling or cancelling the voyages quite spontaneously. Deviations towards South Africa's Cape of Good Hope are the only workable alternative route for now.
Kenya
In the central coffee highlands of Kenya—covering regions like Nyeri, Kirinyaga, and Meru—the weather continues to be wet, with steady precipitation. These rains are supporting the maturation of the fly crop and main crop's flowering.
Coffee flow to Nairobi is declining, as typically happens toward the end of the main harvest. Quality is also declining, with offers shifting toward lower grades. Auction prices remain firm, supported by strong demand.
As for the logistics, the port of Mombasa continues to operate at a slow pace and shipping lines surprise our logistics teams with new cancelations. Not an easy route these days.
Tanzania
The "long rains" season has officially begun across the country, bringing heavy and humid conditions. Last week, Mbeya and Mbinga experienced consistent rainfall with frequent afternoon thunderstorms, while Mount Meru and Kilimanjaro remained relatively drier.
The steady rainfall is supporting coffee cherry maturation, with the Arabica harvest typically starting around June and Robusta around May. Overall, the development of the 2026/2027 crop for both Arabica and Robusta is progressing well, potentially signaling higher volumes for the upcoming season.
In the meantime, coffee farmers and local traders are holding onto their coffee and only releasing stocks strategically.
Operations at the Port of Dar es Salaam remain slow and very similar to Mombasa and Djibouti. Unfortunately, delays are unavoidable.
Uganda
Last week in Uganda, the weather was quite similar to Tanzania's, as the "long rains" (March–May) moved across the region. Across the coffee-producing heartlands, it was a week of heavy afternoon downpours, conditions which are expected to remain the same this week. This is mostly good news for cherry maturation, but it also slows down coffee drying activities.
Meanwhile, the harvest activities in the west are advancing well.
Rwanda
Rwanda has also been experiencing rainy days, with similar conditions expected to continue this week.
Farmers and washing stations remain busy as the harvest progresses. The rain is posing some challenges to sun-drying, requiring more careful management at washing stations. Overall, Rwanda's 2026 harvest is projected to be slightly lower this season. However, quality is expected to remain strong.
Cherry prices remain high, supported by steady demand.
East Africa - Coffee Production Estimates













































































































