Coffee Market News
A weekly look at the global landscape leads to a sobering conclusion: the number of geopolitical flashpoints is clearly growing. Where this newsletter once had to account for one or two international conflicts, the picture has become markedly denser over recent months.
Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine will enter its fourth year in February. Added to this are the conflict in Gaza, the civil war in South Sudan, China's increasingly explicit claim over Taiwan, the brutal repression of protests in Iran, American military pressure on Venezuela, and even talks of annexing Greenland. Global politics has become not only more confrontational, but also more opaque. The era of robust multilateral cooperation appears, for now, to have faded; in its place is emerging a fragile new order whose contours are still uncertain.
Alongside these man-made conflicts, climatic stresses are intensifying. The year 2025 ranked among the warmest since records began, while the world's oceans absorbed more heat than ever before. The consequences are already visible: more frequent extreme weather events, stronger storms and rising sea levels.
Looking ahead, two fault lines increasingly overlap—geopolitical tension and climatic volatility. At precisely this juncture, greater international cooperation would be most urgently needed. Instead, geoeconomic confrontation is becoming the defining feature of the global agenda, a theme that will sit at the heart of the World Economic Forum now under way in Davos. Whether it can generate even a tad of confidence and collective positive action remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, trading on the New York coffee exchange is suspended today for Martin Luther King Day. A glance at last week's activity offers little drama. A brief bullish excursion was quickly reined back into the previously established trading range of 350 to 363 c/lb. In the absence of fresh impulses from producing countries and without a clear directional signal, the market drifted sideways. The March-26 contract (KCH26) closed on Friday at 355.30 c/lb.
Robusta prices, too, continued to move sideways. In recent weeks they have held within a relatively stable band of 3,800 to 4,000 USD/MT. Encouraging fundamentals from Vietnam—stable production figures and solid export volumes—have yet to exert any discernible bearish pressure on the market. This may simply be a matter of time. In the other major Robusta-producing countries—Brazil, Indonesia, Uganda and India—prospects likewise point to strong harvests. The much-discussed supply gap on the Robusta side is therefore likely to close.
The most relevant market data can be found, as usual, in the table below:

News from Origin: Brazil, Colombia, and Peru
Brazil
Rainfall patterns in Brazil are once again in focus. After earlier indications that precipitation had normalized across key coffee-growing regions, forecasts have shifted, now pointing to a reduced likelihood of rain in parts of the country over the coming week. The timing is delicate: the 2026/2027 crop has entered the bean-formation stage, a phase in which consistent rainfall is particularly important.
Overall, the wet season has so far delivered adequate precipitation. Flowering was strong, soil moisture has largely been replenished, and conditions have supported healthy early bean development, leaving the outlook for the upcoming crop broadly positive. How the recent changes in rainfall distribution will affect yields remains to be seen.
Commercial activity remains subdued. Arabica availability is tight, with producers holding back remaining stocks and releasing only small residual volumes. Conilon (Robusta) flows are likewise slow.
There are no new developments to report from the Port of Santos.
Colombia
Tensions between Colombia and the United States appear to be easing. After the U.S. capture of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, Colombian President Gustavo Petro condemned the move as a serious violation of Latin American sovereignty. Former President Trump responded with threats of military action similar to the intervention in Venezuela. The tone has since softened following a constructive phone call, after which President Petro was invited to the White House. Colombia remains one of the United States' closest regional allies, particularly in the fight against narcotics.
Weather conditions across Colombia remain wet, with rainfall expected to persist throughout the week in coffee-producing areas. The main harvest in Antioquia, Caldas, Risaralda, Quindío and Valle del Cauca is ongoing. Yields this season have been lower, while persistent rain continues to complicate the even drying of parchment coffee.
Flows are expected to taper in the coming weeks as attention gradually shifts to the April–June harvest, which currently carries more favorable expectations.
The Colombian Coffee Federation (FNC) has published its official figures for 2025. Total production reached 13.7 million 60-kg bags, a decline of 2% compared with 2024. In the first three months of the new coffee year (October to December), output fell to 3.7 million bags—down 24% year on year. The decline reflects adverse weather conditions in the first half of the year as well as coffee's biennial production cycle.
No significant updates have been reported from the ports of Buenaventura (Pacific) and Cartagena (Caribbean).
Peru
Peru closed the year on a somber note following a fatal accident involving two tourist trains serving the Machu Picchu archaeological site. One person was killed and more than 40 were reported injured.
The country is currently in its wet season, with January and February typically the rainiest months. Rain is forecast this week across coffee-growing regions.
From a coffee perspective, Peru is between seasons. The 2025 harvest concluded in September. While overall availability is limited, some volumes from the previous crop remain on offer. Farmers are now focused on maintenance work and preparations for the coming season.
There are no updates from the Port of Callao.
Production Estimates for South America











































































