When Coffee Markets get uncertain: How to Avoid Bias in Buying Decisions
by Philip von der Goltz
When I read the news these days, I sometimes feel dizzy.
The conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. Putin's continuing war against Ukraine. The armed conflict in South Sudan. China's quiet, strategic consolidation of access to global raw materials. And hanging over all of it the sense that the geopolitical balance of the world is shifting in unpredictable ways and in manners we perhaps haven't seen in a century.
The situation is serious. So are its consequences.
Take the Strait of Hormuz. What happens if it does not reopen quickly? Not only oil tankers get stuck there. Fertilizer flows slow down as well. That creates more than a logistical problem because nature grants no geopolitical grace period. Farmers must fertilize fields on time. Plants don't wait for diplomatic solutions. The biological cycle moves on whether the goods sit in port or not.
And that is exactly where the real problem begins: not uncertainty itself, but the wish to know more so we can prepare and respond to it adequately.
It is in moments like these that I find myself wishing for a crystal ball. How comforting to face a future we could forecast with confidence. But all forecasts, I know, even ones that purport to predict the future with certainty, have a well-known weakness: they rarely survive first contact with reality, chance, and friction for long. Especially in geopolitically charged market phases, thinking errors can prove almost as dangerous as the crisis itself.
Those thinking errors are a mix of overconfidence and monocausal thinking. In practice, it sounds something like this: "Hormuz is blocked, so coffee has to rise." The logic sounds neat. But markets are rarely that simple.
Yes, the Strait of Hormuz matters enormously to the global energy market. And yes, disruptions there affect energy prices, inflation, market sentiment, and at times fertilizer flows as well. But coffee does not automatically turn bullish. Higher energy prices can also suppress demand, raise financing costs, and trigger a classic risk-off move. What pushes prices higher on one side can restrain them on the other.
Yes, the Strait of Hormuz matters enormously to the global energy market. And yes, disruptions there affect energy prices, inflation, market sentiment, and at times fertilizer flows as well. But coffee does not automatically turn bullish. Higher energy prices can also suppress demand, raise financing costs, and trigger a classic risk-off move. What pushes prices higher on one side can restrain them on the other.
Anyone who avoids that first mistake of overconfidence and monocausal thinking often runs straight into a second mistake: confirmation bias.
The moment someone turns internally bullish or bearish, the eye starts to filter. It looks for that which confirms its views. Bulls focus on rising freight costs, more expensive energy, and looming delays. Bears focus on weaker global growth, softer demand, and possible fund liquidation. Both readings may contain truth. That is precisely where the danger lies.
I know this trick from long car drives with my kids. We play "who counts more blue, or red or pick-your-color-cars." After only a few minutes on the autobahn I will mainly see my chosen ones.
Coffee markets do not move on data but on narrative. And a geopolitical shock always delivers a powerful story. The problem with powerful stories is that they drown out quieter but equally relevant counterforces: promising crop expectations, weaker demand, risks the market has already priced in, or changing warehouse dynamics.
That brings us to the third thinking error: availability and recency bias. The mind tricks us magnifying the near-by problems. Depending on your bullish or bearish feelings, you will digest information as signs showing abundance or scarcity of supply.
The biggest headline of the moment quickly starts to look like the most important price driver. But presence is not the same as relevance. A geopolitical escalation can dominate sentiment in Arabica and Robusta in the short term. Over the medium term, however, in my experience, the usual forces often retake control: the weather in Brazil, the export flows out of Vietnam, what certified stocks, spreads, or weakening global demand are doing. The loudest impulse is not always the one to trust.
So what does that mean in practical terms for the coffee market?
The honest answer is this: we should be careful not to mistake a shock for a lasting trend. That is precisely why it pays to not react to headlines. Instead break price movements down into their individual components.
During the past week Arabica prices in New York fell by 3,6% closing on Friday at 289,30 c/lb. Despite geopolitical tension and broader macro uncertainty, the market continues in its search for a clear trend – besides sideways. Next Monday is first-notice day. The coming days will see continued rolling of futures positions from KCK26 into KCN26.
Prices in London took a little contrarian approach and despite some minor gains during the week (up 1,9%), the common denominator between both coffee markets is the sideways movement. Prices settled at 3.388 USD/MT on Friday.
So what can roasters do in times of volatility and uncertainty after realizing the crystal ball is not going to safe you? How can you best avoid tapping into thinking errors?
A very practical anti-bias method is staggered buying. This relatively simple practice serves many buyers better than pure speculation and the hope of outsmarting the market. Anyone who buys in stages replaces the illusion of perfect timing with discipline.
Other successful buyers follow a highly disciplined approach to hedging price and volume. Good buyers don't do this on instinct. They do this at specific inventory coverage levels, at predetermined price points, or in connection with clearly defined demand windows. That removes emotion from the decision - and in nervous market phases, removing emotion from the decision is worth gold.
Buyers can also gain valuable insight by breaking down the individual price drivers. Physical availability, the futures market, differentials, currencies, weather, freight and logistics, geopolitical risk, customer demand, and inventory coverage all shape coffee's overall supply and demand structure and therefore ultimately drive price as well. We will explore that in more detail in next week's newsletter.
For now, the table below already shows an excerpt of the most relevant coffee data. We update it weekly:

Origin News: What is happening in Central America and Mexico?
Central America and Mexico recently celebrated Holy Week in March. Beyond its religious significance, many people take this time to rest and refresh at the beach during the region's warm summer days.
In Honduras, scattered rains have been reported, triggering early flowering in lower-altitude regions. Regular precipitation is now needed to ensure proper fixation and healthy cherry development. Fortunately, additional scattered rainfall is forecast across the region this week.
Meanwhile, the 2025/2026 harvest in Honduras is largely complete, with only small volumes remaining to be picked in higher-altitude areas. Coffee availability is now very limited, as farmers and producers have already allocated most of their coffee and are fulfilling existing commitments. Export numbers have improved compared to the previous crop year and farmers, cooperatives and exporters are keen of capturing the high prices and to move the coffee to the port.
A similar situation is observed in Guatemala and Costa Rica, where the harvest has concluded and there is no more coffee on offer. In Nicaragua, early flowering has already been reported, providing a positive outlook for the upcoming crop. In El Salvador, some coffee is still available, but like the rest of the region, stocks are nearly sold out.
As for the local prices, these remain high driven by the diminishing supply.
Operations are running normally across Central America's major ports.






























































































