Coffee Market News
This year's Nobel Prize in Economics has been awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt for their research on innovation-driven growth and the dynamics of "creative destruction." Their work has helped explain how technological progress displaces outdated systems, driving productivity and prosperity. The trio also cautioned that protectionism, tariff barriers and shrinking markets stifle innovation—warnings that sound uncomfortably prescient in today's increasingly fragmented world economy.
Yet human behaviour appears to be leaning more toward the destructive than the creative. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports that global atmospheric CO₂ concentrations jumped by 3.5 ppm from 2023 to 2024—the largest annual increase on record—driven by fossil-fuel combustion, wildfires and weakening natural carbon sinks. The WMO warns that rising greenhouse gases are locking in greater climate volatility, with droughts and heatwaves likely to intensify across continents. For coffee producers, that spells deepening supply risks, higher price pressure and renewed threats to shipping routes such as the drought-stricken Panama Canal, where logistics and insurance costs continue to climb.
Amid this backdrop, La Niña conditions are expected to persist through early 2026 before easing. The familiar pattern of teleconnections is already unfolding: drier weather in southern Brazil, wetter conditions across Colombia and Central America, and erratic rainfall in East Africa.
The impact of these climatic shifts is increasingly reflected in coffee futures. After a calm start to the week, Arabica prices surged mid-week past 418 c/lb, narrowly missing December contract highs of 424 c/lb before retreating to close with a 6.5% weekly gain at 397.45 c/lb. Traders in New York remain skittish—every whisper of drier-than-expected-weather in Brazil or new tariffs sends the market oscillating with heightened volatility.
Robusta, by contrast, has been trading in a narrower, steadier band. With expectations of a large Vietnamese harvest, prices fluctuated modestly between 4,500 and 4,600 USD/MT, closing the week up 2.2% at 4,630 USD/MT. A quiet week—at least by recent standards.
In the following table we update the most relevant coffee data:

News from Origin: South America
Brazil
Hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough rose following last week's video call between Presidents Donald Trump and Lula da Silva, after both sides resumed formal trade talks after a brief corridor-style conversation during the UN General Assembly in New York. Negotiations are expected to cover U.S. ethanol access, Brazilian rare-earth exports, and digital trade rules. Observers suggest that if Brasília presents meaningful trade concessions, Washington may ease its stance on coffee tariffs.
Brazilian coffee exports reached an estimated 3.5 million bags in September, according to preliminary customs data — a 12 % increase compared with August, but still 23 % below last year's volume. Shipments to the United States continue to fall sharply under the weight of the 50% import tariff.
Meanwhile, rainfall has returned across the main Arabica-growing. The resumption of moisture follows uneven flowering in September, and agronomists note that current conditions could stabilize the 2026 harvest outlook by improving fruit set and early cherry development.
Still, weather uncertainty remains: the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has raised the probability of a La Niña system to 71 %, a pattern that could bring excessively dry conditions to Brazil and potentially curb yields for the 2026/27 crop.
Domestically, farm-gate sales are mixed. Many producers have become more active sellers as rains improved crop prospects, though a strong Brazilian real — now at its firmest since mid-2024 — has dampened exporter enthusiasm. Market sentiment remains divided between farmers betting on higher prices and those selling into the current rally.
On the logistical front, exporters in Brazil are experiencing delays due to a shortage of containers from most shipping lines.
Colombia
The relationship between Colombia and the U.S. is intensifying. President Trump labeled Colombia's president Petro a "drug leader," vowed to halt payments and hike tariffs, while the U.S. hit a suspected smuggling vessel; Bogotá condemned the moves. Diplomatic rift raises trade and FX volatility risk across the Andean region.
The southern mid-crop is now largely completed, while the main harvest is gathering pace in northern regions. Nationwide peak output is expected between mid-November and early December. Reports of heavier rainfall have slightly delayed cherry ripening, prompting increased spot demand in local markets. Early forward offers for 2026 delivery are emerging, primarily from well-financed exporters seeking to secure supply ahead of a possible price correction.
Climatic conditions remain broadly favorable, with adequate rainfall supporting the latest flowerings for the 2025/26 fly crop. Excess precipitation, however, could pose localized risks. Based on observed flowering between July and September, the next Mitaca crop (April–May 2026) is expected to arrive on schedule, in contrast to this year's delayed pattern.
There is no news on the logistical front. Fresh crop shipments are expected to arrive throughout October and November. Keep tuned.
Peru
Peru's political turbulence has taken a sharp turn, disrupting logistics across the coffee sector. A nationwide transport strike has shut key highways and paralyzed coffee flows to the ports of Callao and Paita, particularly from the producing hub of Jaén (Cajamarca). The unrest followed the ousting of President Dina Boluarte, removed by Congress amid corruption allegations, a worsening crime wave, and widespread protests. Congress leader José Jeri has assumed the presidency on an interim basis and pledged to restore order ahead of elections scheduled for next spring.
The upheaval has heightened the risk of shipment delays, as exporters struggle to move coffee from interior regions to the coast. The harvest has now ended in most areas below 1,900 m, with only high-altitude farms still picking. Roughly 85 % of the crop is estimated to be sold, leaving intermediaries holding the remainder for near-term commercialization. Local parchment prices have softened amid a liquidity squeeze and exporters' focus on clearing inventories ahead of the December–March futures switch.
Earlier in the season, record deliveries driven by high New York prices pushed many exporters to accumulate unsold physical stocks. With global buyers cautious due to market volatility and tariff-related uncertainty elsewhere in the region, FOB differentials have eased, though trading interest remains limited.
Production Estimates for South America































































