Coffee Market: What Happened Last Week – and Where Are We Heading?
by Philip von der Goltz
A quiet week in coffee. At least in terms of fresh fundamental news. On the futures exchanges, things were rather less tranquil.
On the political front, all eyes were on Brazil. Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, finished the first round just two percentage points ahead of actual President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Neither secured the required absolute majority. The outcome will now be decided in the runoff on October 25.
Part of the international coffee world, meanwhile, had another date on their busy schedule: the annual Swiss Coffee Dinner – this time in Montreux. The major trading houses gathered to foster relationships and discuss the state of the coffee market. With views over Lake Geneva and a chilled glass of champagne in hand, contemplating supply and demand is undoubtedly more pleasant than sitting in front of a trading screen.
But if the traders were strolling along the lake, who was moving the futures prices?
For Arabica (KCZ26), the gap between the weekly high and low was around 20 c/lb. Trading volumes were thin. Price swings were not. Algorithms apparently set the pace for much of this lightly traded week. Machines need neither lake views nor champagne. Nor do they pause for conversation.
The fundamental picture, meanwhile, has changed little. Brazil's coffee harvest remains on course for a potential record at just under 75 million bags. Shipments are already setting new records. Vietnam, the world's second-largest coffee producer, has also brought in a very large crop and continues to deliver substantial volumes to the global market. Assessments of the upcoming harvests in other producing countries are also largely encouraging.
The potential effects of the anticipated super El Niño do, however, cast something of a shadow over this otherwise positive supply outlook.
On the demand side, conditions remain more subdued. Inflation is weakening the major consuming markets of North America and Europe. Fortunately, people are still drinking coffee. But households are watching their spending more closely – including on their daily pleasures.
The futures markets nevertheless moved higher. New York Arabica ended the week up 3.6% at 288.75 c/lb. London Robusta gained 3.0%, closing at USD 3,469/MT.
A week with little fresh fundamental news, but plenty of movement on trading screens. The prospect of more coffee becoming available in the coming months remains encouraging. How much actually arrives, in what quality and at what price, however, will be determined well beyond the shores of Lake Geneva.
The following table summarises the key coffee market data. We update it weekly.

Origin News: What is happening in Central America and Mexico?
Central America and Mexico recently celebrated their independence days. Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua celebrate on September 15 with street parades, music, and traditional dances. Mexico celebrates one day later, on September 16.
Meanwhile, El Salvador has scheduled its next presidential election for February 28, 2027. President Nayib Bukele will seek a third term after constitutional changes removed presidential term limits.
Honduras is entering the "Feriado Morazánico", which combines three national holidays. Many Hondurans use the break for travel, but this year's holiday has been marked by roadblocks and protests over high fuel prices, alongside rain alerts in Francisco Morazán and Cortés, home to the Cortés port on the Caribbean coast. The rain has been well welcomed after the severe dry spell in June and July. With the public and private sectors on holiday, business operations are currently paused.
As for coffee, attention is turning to the new crop. In Honduras, IHCAFE (Honduran Coffee Institute) estimates the 2025/2026 harvest at around 5.6 million bags and expects a smaller crop next season due to reduced rainfall. October and November are the wettest months, making rainfall during this period key to the new harvest cycle. The drought and irregular rainfall have also affected El Salvador and Guatemala, where many corn and bean farmers have lost almost their entire crops.
In Nicaragua, the 2026/2027 harvest has started early, with volumes estimated at around 2.3 million bags, in line with the previous season. A higher incidence of coffee leaf rust is raising concerns, as it could affect both the current crop and that of 2027/2028.
In El Salvador, the ISC (Salvadoran Coffee Institute) reports that the 2025/2026 harvest reached its highest level in almost ten years, increasing by 12.2% to approximately 640,000 bags of 69 kg. As in Honduras, the 2026/2027 crop is expected to be smaller due to drought in recent months.
Logistics in Nicaragua have reportedly improved. In Panama, however, a strengthening El Niño is raising concerns about water shortages that could limit shipping traffic.
Coffee Production Estimates for Central America
























































































