Coffee Market: what happened last week – and where are we heading?
Economists agree: the Iran war has pushed energy prices meaningfully higher, generating inflationary pressure across the board — in Europe, the United States, and beyond. The European Central Bank made the case explicitly when it raised its interest rate by 25 basis points on June 11th, and the same logic is now echoing through the corridors of the Federal Reserve. Kevin Warsh — former Morgan Stanley banker, Trump's appointed Fed chair — left no ambiguity after Wednesday's meeting, where rates were held unchanged: the Fed will deliver price stability, and that means fighting inflation with higher interest rates. The irony is not lost on anyone. Trump wants lower rates to give the American economy a growth impulse. Warsh has quietly set that expectation aside.
Direction, it turns out, is just as volatile in coffee markets as it is in monetary policy. Just as the consensus had solidified into bearish unison — every expert, every chart, every analyst pointing the same way — arabica futures in New York executed a hard U-turn. Nearly seven percent in four trading days, in a week shortened by the Juneteenth holiday. By Thursday's close, the July contract stood at 275.10 c/lb.
So what triggered the rally?
First and foremost: fund short-covering. Positions had been stretched to the short side, and when the reversal came, it came fast. Compounding the move was the persistent scarcity of exchange-certified stocks, which have been grinding lower for months. There is also growing discussion in the market about whether capital rotating out of oil — following the recent pullback in crude — has found a partial home in other commodity markets, including coffee.
Brazil added its own chapter. Persistent rainfall has complicated harvest operations across several key growing regions. Too much moisture during the picking season creates quality risks — mold and phenol contamination — and slows the harversting process. If conditions persist, shipment timelines may slip, and availability of premium grades such as Strictly Soft, Fine Cups and Good Cups could come in below earlier expectations.
London's robusta market told a similar story, if at a somewhat more measured pace. July 2026 settled Friday at $3,640/MT, a weekly gain of 1.3%. At its intraweek peak, the contract touched $3,736/MT — the highest level in four months.
US markets were closed on Friday. The World Cup fans were not.
USA versus Australia, group stage, host nation versus underdog. Though "host nation" is a rather elastic concept at this tournament. For the first time in history, three countries share the honour — Canada, Mexico, and the United States. In 2002, it was two for the first time (Japan and South Korea). By 2030, it will be three continents: Portugal, Spain, and Morocco as the primary hosts, with one match each in Uruguay, Argentina, and Paraguay. FIFA calls it a centenary celebration. Others call it a logistical nightmare. Then comes 2034 — Saudi Arabia has the rights — and at the current rate of geographic expansion, Elon Musk's bid for Earth, Moon, and Mars is only a matter of time. Who supplies the coffee up there? No idea. After a weekend this hot, I need a cold brew tonic. Now!

Origin News: East Africa
Ethiopia
Ethiopian citizens have just gone to the polls as elections were held in the country. Voting was suspended in parts of Ethiopia's Oromia and Amhara regions due to security concerns. Up to now, the outcome will likely give Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party, who has been in power since 2018, another five years in office.
From politics to weather: rain continues to be on the radar across producing regions, including Sidamo, Yirgacheffe, and Guji. The rainfall is essential during the flowering period for the upcoming 2026/27 harvest, which typically begins in October.
The local coffee market remains calm.
Logistically, there are delays due to container shortages.
Kenya
Weather conditions across Kenya are becoming slightly drier, with only a few scattered showers forecast across producing regions such as Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Murang'a, and Kiambu this week.
Meanwhile, the fly crop continues to progress steadily. Overall, both volumes and quality are expected to be high, supported by favourable weather conditions.
According to the latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report, coffee production in Kenya is forecast to increase by nearly 12% to 950,000 60-kilogram bags in market year 2026/27. The growth is attributed to an expansion in harvested area and improved farm management following two years of strong prices.
Kenya is also advancing a coffee expansion programme in the Central, Eastern, and Rift Valley regions through the government-supported New Kenya Planters Co-operative Union, which provides farmers with seedlings and fertilizers through a revolving fund.
Auctions at the Nairobi Coffee Exchange are currently paused and are scheduled to resume in July.
At the Port of Mombasa, container shortages continue to be reported, resulting in significant delays.
Tanzania
Tanzania continues to experience sunny and dry conditions as the harvest season gradually begins, particularly in the lowland areas, where cherry picking is already underway.
Cherry ripening continues across both Arabica- and Robusta-producing regions. The harvest is expected to peak between July and August.
A slightly larger crop is expected this season for both Arabica and Robusta, supported by favourable weather conditions and the increasing productivity of newly planted coffee trees. The USDA forecasts production growth of 10.3%, reaching 1.6 million 60-kilogram bags in MY 2026/27, up from 1.45 million bags the previous year.
Operations at the Port of Dar es Salaam continue to run normally.
Uganda
The Ebola outbreak continues to affect Uganda. The country has recently closed its border with the DR Congo. The decision was made following a surge in virus cases among Ugandan health workers who treated Congolese patients.
The outbreak does not appear to be affecting coffee harvesting activities or coffee flows, which is crucial as the main Robusta harvest is underway in Masaka and the Western regions. Although picking is already underway, the harvest has been significantly delayed and is currently running around 5–6 weeks behind the usual timing. Despite the delay, around half of the crop is now harvested.
However, because of the delay, supply remains tight, with only small volumes finding their way to Kampala. With coffee flow remaining slow and prices trending downwards, local traders are hesitant to sell and are taking a calm and strategic approach.
Rwanda
Weather conditions across Rwanda continue to be dry and warm, providing ideal conditions for harvesting activities.
Rwanda's harvest is now nearing completion, with around 90% of cherries already collected. Despite lower volumes expected this season, with total yields projected to decline by approximately 20–30%, quality remains promising.
East Africa - Coffee Production Estimates


























































































