Coffee Market: What Happened Last Week – and Where Are We Heading?
by Philip von der Goltz
Last week's coffee market felt a little like the flight home after a summer holiday.
Well rested, nicely tanned and still mentally on the beach, you settle into your seat. You can almost hear the waves when the familiar safety demonstration begins: life jackets, oxygen masks and emergency exits. You have seen it all before, so you switch off and start dreaming again.
Then the turbulence hits.
Suddenly, you remember that you are no longer lying on a beach. You are sitting inside a thin metal tube, almost 10,000 metres above the ground.
The markets delivered a similar wake-up call last week. After several relatively quiet trading days, we were abruptly reminded just how fragile the global situation remains.
The major geopolitical conflicts are still unresolved. Talks continue, but solutions remain a distant prospect. At the same time, crucial bottlenecks in global trade – the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Suez Canal – remain hazardous. Shipping companies and traders are responding with remarkable speed. Supply chains are being redesigned, routes diverted and risks reassessed.
New trade routes are emerging in the process. China and Russia are working to establish the Arctic as an alternative corridor between Asia and Europe. What long appeared to be a logistical footnote may become another building block in the reordering of the global economy.
But geopolitical risk is only one side of the story. The other is climate.
The effects of the strong El Niño event forecast for months now appear to be becoming increasingly visible. Indonesia is experiencing an unusually prolonged dry spell. In China, hundreds of thousands of people had to be moved to safety ahead of Typhoon Dolphin. In the Philippines, days of heavy rain have claimed numerous lives.
Europe, meanwhile, is moving from one heatwave to the next. Wildfires in Spain, Portugal, France, Italy and Greece are destroying large areas of forest. At the same time, low water levels on the Rhine and other European waterways are severely disrupting inland shipping. Cargo must be shifted to rail and road – assuming spare capacity can be found at all.
Severe wildfires are also raging across Canada and the United States. Tens of thousands of people have been forced to leave their homes.
All these events have one thing in common: they cause more than human suffering. They also damage economic infrastructure. Transport takes longer, insurance becomes more expensive, supply chains lose efficiency and companies are forced to build additional safety stocks. Climate change is therefore no longer merely an environmental issue. It is becoming one of the greatest sources of cost and risk for the global economy.
Meanwhile, dictators, autocrats and self-appointed strongmen are attempting to establish a new – or rather, an old – world order using ideas inherited from the previous century. They appear to be overlooking a rather simple truth: whether we like it or not, we are all sitting in the same aircraft. But enough summer philosophy. Let us return to the realities of coffee.
What does this mean for the coffee market?
Stocks in consuming countries are becoming thinner and thinner. At the same time, the Brazilian harvest is approaching its final stages – yet coffee is moving only slowly from farms, through Santos and into roasters' warehouses. This is increasing pressure on coffees available for immediate delivery. And this is where the crucial distinction lies: coffee can be scarce in terms of availability without being scarce in terms of actual supply.
Brazil is harvesting a very large, possibly record crop. Delays do not change that. Heavy rainfall has slowed the harvest and raised questions about drying and quality, particularly in the specialty segment. But the volume is there. Facts, as we know, are difficult to argue with.
The question is therefore not so much whether warehouses in consuming countries will refill, but when. This is the central lesson of the current market: we must not confuse a temporary shortage of readily available coffee with a structural shortage of supply.
Many Brazilian coffee farmers are also in a comparatively strong financial position after more than three years of high prices. They do not need to sell their coffee immediately after harvest. They can afford to wait – and many of them are doing exactly that. Farmers in weaker financial positions do not have this freedom. They often have to sell their coffee as soon as it is harvested, and sometimes even before. The current reluctance of Brazilian producers should therefore not mislead us: just because coffee is not being offered today does not mean it does not exist.
At some point, that coffee will come to market. And when it does, Brazilian farmers will not be the only producers looking to sell. Coffee from other origins will be seeking buyers as well. This could place significant downward pressure on prices.
Any potential effects of a strong El Niño, by contrast, are unlikely to become clearly visible – if at all – before the summer crops of 2027 and the winter crops of 2027/28. The market is therefore trading several time horizons at once: tight spot availability today, substantial Brazilian volumes over the coming months and possible climate risks from 2027 onwards.
No wonder the turbulence is intensifying.
Over the past six weeks, we have experienced exceptionally volatile trading sessions. Intraday moves of 20 US cents per pound are no longer unusual. In a market like this, a single headline, weather forecast or large order can be enough to illuminate the fasten-seatbelt sign once again. What does this mean for coffee purchasing?
For roasters, it makes sense to divide the market into three time horizons:
- Short term: Spot coffees and volumes required for immediate delivery remain scarce and expensive. Security of supply should take priority over the hope of achieving the perfect price.
- Medium term: The Brazilian crop exists and will gradually make its way into consuming countries. Buyers with some flexibility should not interpret every temporary shortage as proof that prices must continue to rise indefinitely.
- Long term: The potential consequences of El Niño and climate change remain real. Risks relating to the 2027 and 2027/28 crops should therefore be monitored early and, where appropriate, covered gradually.
A staggered purchasing strategy remains the most sensible approach: sufficient cover for immediate requirements, flexibility for the coming months and close attention to the climatic risks surrounding future crop cycles. At the exchanges themselves, the visible effects of all this turbulence remained surprisingly modest.
New York Arabica ended the week with a gain of around one per cent and a closing price of 335.55 US cents per pound. London Robusta also appeared largely unimpressed by the many risks. On Friday, the September 2026 spot month gained 0.1 per cent and closed the week at an unspectacular USD 3,787 per metric tonne.
The aircraft may be shaking rather violently. So far, however, it remains on course. As usual, the following table contains the most important market data. We update it every week:
Origin News: What is happening in Central America and Mexico?
Nicaragua's President Daniel Ortega, who has been in office since 2007, has publicly announced that elections will no longer be held in Nicaragua to prevent the opposition from coming to power. Elections were due to take place next year, but Ortega gave no details on whether they would be cancelled or whether the opposition would be barred from taking part. Speaking of "strange" electoral procedures: El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele announced his intentions to run for a third term. The presidential elections are set to take place in February 2027.
From politics to nature – in Costa Rica, a new species of frog has recently been discovered. It has been nicknamed the "coffee frog" – not because it feeds on coffee cherries, but because the tiny nocturnal frog appears to favor coffee plantations as its habitat. The frog was discovered in Tarrazú, where it finds shelter among the highland's coffee slopes.

Source: Ezequiel BECERRA / AFP
Meanwhile, in Guatemala, Volcán de Fuego, located 16 km west of Antigua, erupted last week. Several towns were evacuated, but fortunately, no one was harmed. Our suppliers also report that they are safe.
As for the weather, rainy conditions persist across the region. These rains are key to the optimal development of the upcoming crop.
In Honduras, IHCAFE reports total production of 5.7 million 60 kg bags as of July 2026, representing a 16% increase compared to the 2024/2025 crop. Given coffee's biennial cycle, the 2026/2027 crop is expected to be lower. Offers are extremely limited, with the few available coffees in high demand.
In neighbouring Nicaragua, the current crop is pretty much sold out. Low-altitude areas are already seeing new crop development, with the harvest season expected to start earlier this year.
Market participants remain cautious amid continued high market volatility.
There are no new developments on the logistics front.
Coffee Production Estimates for Central America


Views of Fazenda Vila Boa in Carmo da Mata. July 2026.


























































































