General News
Los Angeles is on fire - and unfortunately, that's not a metaphor. Massive forest fires have destroyed large parts of the Californian City of Angels. Ten people have died, more than 100,000 have had to be evacuated, and the estimated damage is scraping the 20 billion dollar mark, according to AccuWeather. The near "perfect storm" of high winds, low humidity, broken hydrants, and a lack of firefighting water has left firefighters battling windmills - or rather, fires. The images in the news and the accounts of those affected are simply terrifying.
Munich Re, the world's largest reinsurer, estimates total losses from natural disasters in 2024 at a record-breaking 140 billion US dollars. Let's see what 2025 will bring in terms of climate, the trend is already alarming...
After reaching a record high on December 10 (348.35 c/lb), the coffee market has calmed down - at least apparently. The past few weeks have been almost meditative with low volatility. But beware: even a calm lake can bubble unexpectedly. In New York, 500 lots were enough to move the Arabica March contract by more than 5 c/lb. Although the markets closed without any significant changes, uncertainty remains omnipresent.
Supply and demand fundamentals remain shaky. Low coffee stocks and an inverted market, which makes storage unattractive, are doing the rest. Logistical bottlenecks add to the pressure: an estimated 7 to 9 million bags are stuck between shipping and arrival ports. They have not disappeared, but their delayed arrival reduces availability.
A comparison with the cocoa market, where prices have exploded to record levels, suggests itself but is not entirely valid. While cocoa comes almost exclusively from the Ivory Coast and Ghana, global coffee production is spread across over 30 countries. Although Brazil and Vietnam dominate with around 55% of the total volume, the cluster risk is significantly lower. What remains is a mixture of caution and vigilance.
On Friday, Arabica closed with a slight gain of 1.6% at 323.85 c/lb, and Robusta followed at an almost unchanged level of USD 4,966/MT.
The coffee market currently resembles a volcano: the surface appears stable, but underneath it is bubbling. Buyers and sellers face each other like two cowboys in a typical Western movie. Who will twitch the price revolver first?
You can find all the coffee-related information in the table below. We update it weekly:
Brazil
The summer season has officially begun in Brazil and will continue until the end of March. Forecasts indicate a high likelihood of rainfall throughout the season. This week, rain is expected in the Cerrado region, as well as in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Espírito Santo, and Bahia.
Harvest activities are currently quiet, as Brazil is between seasons. Activity is expected to take off in March with the start of the Conilon (Robusta) harvest.
According to CECAFE (Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council), Brazil exported 4.66 million 60-kg coffee bags in November 2024, marking a 5.4% increase compared to the same month in 2023. Exports for the first 11 months of 2024 surged by 32.2%, reaching a record 46,4 million bags. Of these, Arabica exports grew by 23%, while Robusta volumes more than doubled, increasing by 107% year-over-year. Preliminary reports from CECAFE estimate December exports at a lower total of 2.96 million 60-kg coffee bags.
Despite record exports at the end of the year, Brazil faced over 1 million bags stuck at ports in 2024. Ongoing infrastructure issues and a shortage of food-safe containers continue to cause logistical delays.
With the holiday break, market activity slowed down. However, record-high local prices encouraged producers to sell. Exporters remain cautious amid NY market volatility and fluctuating differentials, while buyers focus on short-term shipments. News of financial difficulties among large export companies intensified market concerns.
Colombia
As the year begins, the southern regions of Huila, Nariño, and Cauca continue to experience moderate rainfall. Similar conditions are expected in areas around Valle del Cauca, Quindío, Risaralda, and Caldas.
With the main harvest in the southern regions concluding, the Federación Nacional de Cafeteros (FNC) announced that the annual production reached 13.9 million bags, 23% higher than in 2023, marking Colombia's best harvest in the past five years. This success is attributed to improved climatic conditions, farm-level renovation efforts, and the implementation of resistant coffee varieties.
In line with high prices in the NY market, local prices are also on the rise. Nonetheless, differentials remain rather low.
As for logistics — the ports of Buenaventura (Pacific) and Cartagena (Caribbean) are experiencing challenges due to low container availability and limited vessel space.
Peru
Peru's northern and central coasts ended the year with several ports and beaches closed due to unusually large waves hitting the coastline. These waves are believed to be caused by winds off the coast of the United States. No human casualties have been reported.
Weather conditions continue to be rainy across Amazonas, Cajamarca, and San Martin. Moving to Junin and Puno, conditions are forecasted to be similar.
Peru's harvest ended nearly two months earlier than usual, with a production decrease of around 10% compared to last year. Flowering in some regions was reported in early December, and the upcoming main crop is expected to begin around April.
There is no significant news coming from the port of Callao.
Production Estimates for South America