Coffee Market: what happened last week – and where are we heading?
Eighty-seven percent of the world's population lives in the Northern Hemisphere. Two-thirds of the planet's landmass sits north of the equator – and with it nearly every densely populated region on Earth: China, India, Europe, North America, most of Africa, Russia, the Middle East.
Why should the coffee market care? Because August is when this hemisphere's summer holidays overlap most – and with them, the absences of market participants. August is the month of thinnest liquidity: fewer players, wider spreads, outsized moves on modest news. The coffee exchanges are no exception. Order books are shallow, volume is missing, intraday swings grow. The same order that the market absorbs without a ripple in March moves the price in August.
On holiday, above all, are the classical traders – the trade houses, the brokers, the macro funds with human decision-makers. Not on holiday are the machines: CTAs and trend followers keep trading algorithmically, and their share of exchange activity rises disproportionately in August. The consequence: trends run further than fundamentals justify – because the other side of the trade is missing, the side that would normally say: this has gone too far, I'm fading it.
On the surface, August markets look sluggish. Don't be fooled. Financial history is littered with August tremors, and the mechanics are always the same: a modest trigger meets an empty order book, stop-loss cascades find no counterparty, the move overshoots. Thin liquidity dampens volatility on calm days – and amplifies it on turbulent ones.
Last week, once again, brought no fundamental game-changers. The facts are known: Brazil's harvest is delayed and quality has suffered from the heavy rains – but it remains a very large crop that will need to find a home in the months ahead. The devastating earthquakes in Colombia and on the Indonesian island of Flores have claimed many lives and destroyed homes and infrastructure; coffee production, however, remains largely unscathed in both cases. Vietnam, meanwhile, has brought in another very strong crop. And stocks in consuming countries? Still extremely thin. There is enough coffee – it just isn't yet where it gets drunk. And so spot markets remain under pressure while the macro picture of supply and demand keeps shifting toward surplus.
The one great unknown remains the coming super El Niño. But here, too: the record prices of recent years have motivated producers worldwide to keep investing in coffee. Whether through better fertilization, new plantings or irrigation systems – more coffee will be produced.
The sharply inverted market reflects this state of affairs rather precisely. Participants are busy rolling their positions from September (KCU26) into December (KCZ26). Arabica ended the week virtually unchanged at 338.10 c/lb. Robusta in London showed considerably more movement: here, too, the September position (RMU26) is steadily migrating into November (RMX26). Friday closed at $3,621/MT – a weekly loss of 4.4 percent.
And what awaits us as the holidays slowly, achingly draw to a close? From August 27 to 29, the Kansas City Fed hosts this year's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Wyoming – some 120 central bankers, policymakers, economists and academics from more than 70 countries are expected. Perhaps a measure of normality will return afterwards to a trading world that is, at present, hard to read.
As always, you'll find the key coffee facts in the table below – updated weekly.
Origin News: East Africa
Ethiopia
Ethiopia is currently between harvest seasons, but the new 2026/27 crop is already on the horizon, with harvesting activities typically beginning in October in the lower altitude regions. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts production at 12.1 million 60 kg bags, representing a 4.7% increase compared with the previous crop.
Moderate rainfall continues across Ethiopia's coffee-growing regions, supporting cherry development and ripening. Here and there in the lower-altitude areas of Limu and Kaffa you can already find some ripe cherries.
Local trade remains active, with strong demand as exporters seek to secure available stocks and meet their commitments. This continues to drive local prices higher, encouraging farmers to release their remaining stocks.
There are no significant updates on the logistics front.
Kenya
Kenya's coffee-growing regions are also receiving moderate rainfall, supporting the development of the upcoming main crop.
Meanwhile, the fly crop is coming to an end, with these coffees now reaching the auctions at the Nairobi Coffee Exchange. Auction volumes continue to increase, while quality remains very good. Despite the greater availability, differentials remain firm, supported by strong demand.
There are no significant updates from the Port of Mombasa.
Tanzania
Tanzania continues to experience favorable weather, with sunny and dry conditions supporting the ongoing harvest.
The Arabica harvest is approaching its peak. In the southern regions of Mbeya, Mbozi and Mbinga, activities are progressing well, with growing volumes of parchment arriving at dry mills. The season's first auction is scheduled for August 20.
Meanwhile, the Robusta harvest is gradually coming to an end.
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts production to increase by 10.3% in 2026/27, reaching 1.6 million 60 kg bags. Approximately 53% of it is Arabica.
The Port of Dar es Salaam is operating normally.
Rwanda
The harvest in Rwanda is complete. Dry mills are operating at full capacity, and new crop coffees are being prepared and shipped. Total production volumes are estimated to be 20–30% lower than last season.
Uganda
Rainy conditions continue across Uganda's coffee-growing regions.
In the western areas, the Arabica fly harvest is now complete, but the main crop is being welcomed. Volumes are expected to increase towards the end of the month. Meanwhile, harvesting activities in the east are gradually coming to an end.
East Africa - Coffee Production Estimates




Views of Fazenda Vila Boa in Carmo da Mata. July 2026.






















































































































