Coffee Market: what happened last week – and where are we heading?
Compared to recent months, the geopolitical climate was surprisingly calm. The conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and other global hotspots are by no means over. Yet there are growing signs that diplomatic channels are being used more seriously again. That alone is good news.
As a result, another form of confrontation is moving back into focus: economics. Just over a year ago, President Trump declared "Liberation Day" and imposed a new wave of tariffs on much of the world. The global recession many feared never materialized, but the impact on international trade is impossible to ignore.
Since then, countries of all sizes have been trying to reduce their dependencies — on Washington as much as on Beijing. New trade agreements are being negotiated, supply chains reorganized, and strategic partnerships strengthened.
At the same time, the downside is becoming increasingly visible. Prices for consumers continue to rise. Combined with higher energy costs, there are growing indications that the global economy could be facing another delayed wave of inflation.
What rising costs mean for households in Europe and the United States applies structurally to coffee producers as well — with one important difference: coffee is no longer trading in a bull market. Diesel, fertilizers, labor: everything is becoming more expensive. The price farmers receive for their crop, meanwhile, is trending lower.
Last week was quiet. Almost too quiet to be comforting.
Arabica in New York drifted between 265 and 275 cents per pound before ending the week down 2.5% at 265.60 c/lb. London showed slightly more life, closing 0.6% higher at USD 3,476/MT. Hardly spectacular.
What really matters is the question behind the price action: what will Brazilian producers do? Production estimates for the 2026/27 crop remain impressive, ranging between 71 and 76 million bags depending on the source. Following the Santos Congress, the market appears to be digesting those numbers. Dry weather continues to support harvesting activities across Brazil.
The key question is whether Brazilian farmers will remain disciplined and continue to hold back sales, or whether they will begin selling into a declining market. Forward sales for the 2026/27 crop currently stand at around 8%. Historically, that suggests producers are still waiting and watching. For now, this provides the market with a degree of support. How long that support will last, nobody knows.
While dry conditions are benefiting Brazil's harvest, temperatures between 35°C and 40°C have also been making headlines across Europe and parts of the United States. In many regions, May 2026 is likely to go down as one of the hottest Mays since weather records began.
If this is indeed a preview of the summer ahead, it may be wise to stock up on Cold Brew supplies.
Or perhaps we could follow the example of a growing number of modern coffee farmers. Many are investing in regenerative agriculture, improving soil health, increasing the resilience of their farms, and raising productivity at the same time. The remarkable lesson is that sustainability and profitability do not have to be opposites.
Sometimes the most important innovations are not apps, algorithms, or artificial intelligence; they are simply healthier soils — and a little more shade.

Origin News: Asia Pacific
Vietnam
In Vietnam, the effects of the Super El Niño event are causing concern due to the unusually hot and dry weather it may bring to the region in the second half of the year. In addition, during the first quarter of 2026, rainfall was below normal levels in the main coffee-producing areas of the Central Highlands, including Dak Lak, Gia Lai, Kon Tum, Dak Nong, and Lam Dong. This could have negative repercussions for the development of the next harvest.
For now, moderate rainfall is occurring across the Central Highlands, and farmers are using this period to fertilize their crops. However, excessive heat has been reported in Hanoi and across northern Vietnam.
Nevertheless, the USDA forecasts an increase in Vietnam's 2026/2027 coffee production, estimating total output at 32.5 million bags, of which 31.4 million bags are expected to be Robusta. The 2025/2026 season also recorded a 9.3% increase compared to the previous season, driven by improved productivity and the adoption of climate-resilient varieties.
There is no significant news coming from the Port of Ho Chi Minh City.
Indonesia
Weather conditions across Indonesia remain wet, particularly in Sumatra, where persistent rainfall is complicating the drying of both the fly crop and Robusta coffee. Nevertheless, strong flowering observed during the first months of 2026 points to favorable prospects for the main Arabica harvest, which is expected to start in September/October.
Harvesting activities are ongoing in Java and are gradually getting underway in Sulawesi and Bali.
According to the latest USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report, Indonesia's Arabica production for the 2025/2026 season declined to 1.37 60-kg million bags, down from 1.45 million bags in the previous season. The decrease was largely attributed to the floods and landslides triggered by tropical storms in November 2025, which severely affected Aceh and North Sumatra. Some Arabica plantations reportedly suffered substantial damage and may require two to three years to fully recover. Furthermore, there is still infrastructure that needs to be repaired, contributing to elevated transportation costs.
Looking ahead to the 2026/2027 market year, Indonesia's total coffee production is projected to fall by 8% to 11.38 million 60-kg bags. Excessive rainfall in major Robusta-growing areas of southern Sumatra and Java has negatively affected flowering and cherry development, weighing on production prospects.
There is no news from the port of Lampung.
India
While temperatures remain high across India, monsoon rains are arriving – bringing some relief after a period of excessive heat.
Currently, the country is in between harvests – with the new crop cycle beginning at the end of the year. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service also released estimates for India – forecasting a production decrease of 4.5% to 6.14 million 60-kg bags, with Arabica yields hurt by excessive early-year rains followed by a prolonged dry spell during flowering and fruit development.
There are no significant updates from the ports of Cochin or Mangalore.
Production Estimates in Asia Pacific


















































































































