Coffee Market News
Shortly after half past eight in the morning Salim Al-Shehhi sat on the wooden pier of his small fishing village along the Strait of Hormuz, repairing his nets. He had just brought in a good catch and he stretched out in the warming sun. His fingers had to work apart the cords hardened by sea salt and sand before patiently mending them again in the familiar way. As he worked on this new day, the 28th of February, he felt the desire for a hot coffee growing inside him.
Suddenly, out of nowhere, loud jets appeared in the sky and just as quickly disappeared again. He was scared. He had heard about the geopolitical tensions between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other. Uncertainty and anxiety were taking over his otherwise calm and clear thinking. What would this mean for his small fishing business if suddenly prices for petrol were rising and demand for his fish might soften. At this time Salim could not yet know that the war was under way. Following the bombardment of several cities and a number of militarily relevant targets, the Iranian navy quickly moved to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow stretch turns out to be one of the most important arteries in the global economy.
Nearly twenty percent of the world's crude oil must pass through this passage, and the consequences of this bottleneck were soon reflected at the petrol stations. Oil prices have risen worldwide by more than 25% over the past week. The supply shock caused by the wartime blockade has also produced another side effect: the U.S. Dollar has – somewhat unexpectedly – strengthened. In times of crisis, institutional investors often turn to the USD as a safe store of liquidity.
But what has the development of the Dollar and oil prices to do with coffee? Coffee – as a commodity - is traded in US Dollars and hence the Dollar is extremely important for the pricing of our beloved beverage. International oil prices – the black gold in commodity trading lingo – act often as a proxy for coffee price development. Carefully observing their price development will surely give us insights toward coffee prices might be heading.
Economists now expect that higher oil prices will once again push inflation upwards. Investors are betting that the U.S. Federal Reserve will no longer continue lowering interest rates; instead, they expect that rates may even rise again, which would further strengthen the dollar over the longer term. This pattern – rising oil prices combined with a strong USD – is not unusual and has already been observed during the oil crisis of 1973, the Gulf War in 1990, and after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Besides the strong USD, which naturally puts direct pricing pressure on coffee, shipping lines have already announced significant risk premiums and delays. The Iranian military has attacked various ports and facilities across the Gulf region, leaving little certainty that safe logistics can be guaranteed. Shipments from East Africa are particularly affected – precisely at a time when the beautiful coffees from Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Uganda are supposed to be shipped. Roasters sourcing East African coffees should also pay close attention to logistics risk. With the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea routes under pressure, transit times will increase and freight premiums are already being charged by the shipping lines.
Transit times are also becoming longer. Initial shipments through the Suez Canal have once again been halted, and if shipping companies sail at all, they are now taking the much longer route around South Africa's Cape of Good Hope.
Hope, however, is something Salim Al-Shehhi still has. Having finished repairing his nets, he watches the freshly filleted fish resting in the cooling chambers. Because of the war and the damaged infrastructure, very little fresh food will reach the desert region by sea in the coming weeks. The value of his fish may already have doubled.
In coffee, however, we are not quite at that point yet. There are still enough containers on their way to destination ports, and the chimneys of the roasteries continue to smoke. The market's focus remains firmly on Brazil's new crop. The current crop is completely sold out. There are hardly any offers left – and when they do appear, they come at extremely high prices. Suddenly, washed coffees from Central America are cheaper than naturals from Brazil – who would ever have imagined such a scenario? In more than 25 years in the coffee trade, I cannot recall a situation like this.
And how are international coffee prices reacting to the latest developments? Arabica prices in New York started the week quietly but then rose steadily on Thursday and Friday. The May-26 contract closed the week at 293,30 c/lb, up 4,5%.
Robusta prices in London also experienced another upward swing and by Friday's close were trading 4,1% higher at 3.772 USD/MT.
Under these circumstances it is very likely that volatility will return to the coffee markets. The best protection for roasters in these turbulent times is a disciplined coverage with the key coffee components either in store or under contracts reaching into the second half of the year. Then, the Brazilian harvest will slowly start to percolate towards the consuming countries. The crop prospects look very promising so far! Availability will go up and prices will likely start to relax.
Thousands of kilometers away from the trading screens of New York and London, Salim Al-Shehhi will happily surrender to the sweetness and spiciness of his freshly brewed gahwa (Arabic coffee). When he pays for it, he may notice that the price of coffee has quietly risen – a reminder that the global economy connects even the smallest fishing village to the largest commodity markets.
The table below contains the most relevant coffee market indicators and is updated weekly.

Origin News: Asia Pacific
Vietnam
In Vietnam, weather conditions continue to be favorable for coffee harvesting and processing. Conditions are partly sunny with only occasional rain.
The Robusta harvest will be ending soon. Forecasts for the 2026 harvest currently project an even stronger year, with a 10 percent year-on-year increase in total production estimated by the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association. 2025 was a record year for Vietnamese coffee exports, with almost 26.6 million bags exported.
For now, the local market has been very active. Coffee is being released in good volumes following the latest price developments in London.
No news is coming from the port of Ho Chi Minh.
Indonesia
Sumatra has been experiencing mixed weather conditions, with a combination of sun and tropical showers. Conditions in Java and Bali have also been characterized by rain, mostly in the afternoons.
The situation after the floods at the end of last year continues to improve, with roads being repaired and business activity returning to normal. However, the landslides caused losses to an already smaller crop, resulting in very limited supply. Arabica flow is also poor, keeping local prices high despite the decrease in New York.
There is no news coming from Lampung.
India
Weather conditions in India were very wet in the last week of February, with above-average precipitation in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. This raised concerns for the final stages of the Arabica harvest and its impact on the upcoming crop. Since March, conditions have drastically shifted into a heatwave-like phase, remaining very dry and warm, with temperatures reaching up to 37°C. If weather conditions do not stabilize and provide adequate rainfall, the flowering phase might be compromised, putting the next crop at risk.
In the meantime, the Robusta crop is nearing its end. The new crop is beginning to be shipped this month, with arrivals in Hamburg expected through April and May.
There are no significant updates from the ports of Cochin or Mangalore.
Papua New Guinea
There is no major news from Papua New Guinea. The country is currently between seasons. The 2026 coffee crop is expected to begin around May and continue through August.
Production Estimates in Asia Pacific






































































































