General market situation:
As Putin's invasion of Ukraine continues, we saw another week bringing volatility into the markets. UN chief Antonio Gutierrez met Vladimir Putin and other highly ranked Kreml politicians during his visit to Moscow. Just briefly after he continued his journey to Kyiv, where he met with President Selenskyj, Russian missiles stroke Ukraine's capital. It looks like more devastation, blood, and death will be inevitable before a peaceful solution to this unnecessary war can be agreed upon.
Russia has stopped delivering gas to Poland and Bulgaria, which further propelled international gas prices. Other European countries such as Italy, Austria, and Germany are under pressure as Russia only accepts payments in rubles. Such a transaction by any European company would infringe the imposed sanctions and will indeed bare legal consequences.
The USD has been strengthening compared to other leading international currencies, and at the same time, the commodity complex continues to climb the steep price ladder.
Commodities such as distillates and corn continue to rise and are approaching new all-time highs. The World Bank emphasizes the delicate situation of the global commodity market as the most significant commodity shock since the 70s could materialize rather quickly.
And the international logistic situation also continues to put pressure on supply chains. China's Zero-Covid policy is surely not making the situation any easier. Beijing and other big Chinese cities are entering partial and total lockdown as Shanghai is now entering its fourth week of full lockdown. Activities at the port of Shanghai are minimal. Containers are being re-routed to other ports creating significant congestion. Chinese Labor-Day celebrations are approaching and will last five days, surely adding to the delays.
For eleven consecutive trading days, the Arabica coffee prices have been stuck in a corridor between 230 c/lb and 215 c/lb. Within this bandwidth, the volatility is high, and prices change direction rapidly. This week we saw international coffee prices for Arabica falling more than 2%.
You can follow the principal market changes in the below table.
We update it weekly.
As a reaction to skyrocketing prices for basic food and cooking items in Indonesia, the country's government has banned palm oil export. People started to protest as they had to queue to buy cooking oil and food for a long time. 30% of the global edible-oil supply comes from Indonesia. This export ban will surely propel inflation in most consuming nations as palm oil (and also sunflower oil from Ukraine) is an essential component of many food items and beauty products alike, used daily by millions of people.
Indonesia's crop forecast for the 21/22 crop ranges between 11.5 and 11.9 million bags of coffee. The chunk of the coffee produced in Indonesia is Robusta. With an estimated 10 to 10.5 million bags, it ranks 3rd right after Vietnam (about 30 million bags) and Brazil (22 million bags). The Arabica production is estimated at 1.5 million bags. Exports are estimated at approximately 7 million bags of Arabica and Robusta combined.
Farmers are finalizing the cherry-picking of the Arabica fly crop in Northern Sumatra. And also, the Robusta harvest in Sumatra is progressing well. Parchment is being delivered to the warehouses where it is prepared for export.
Activities at the port are slow, and freight costs continue to increase. Fewer container availability and vessels spontaneously readjust their traveling plans, making bookings rather tricky.
The months of March and April have been the hottest since the national weather service started recording them 122 years ago. In the central parts of India, they recorded highs of 47°C. These extreme temperatures are unusual for springtime, and according to local and international scientists, they come as a consequence of global warming. This is a vicious circle as the heat ignites increasing demand for electricity (used for cooling), which brings along power shortages in many states and, consequently, an increase in fossil fuel consumption.
The 21/22 harvest has been collected, and it looks good in terms of quantity and quality so far. India produces about 5.5 and 6 million bags per year, split into 20% Arabica and 80% Robusta. The volume of washed and natural coffees can vary substantially from year to year. Whether coffee is produced as natural or washed often depends on the logistical infrastructure (is there enough drying capacity?) and the prevailing weather conditions (dry vs. wet weather), and, of course, on premiums paid locally for the washed coffees. Dry mills are running at full steam, and exporters are preparing the coffee for being shipped to consuming countries.
Activities at India's leading coffee exporting ports of Mangalore and Cochin remain a challenge. Freight rates continue on the high side, and a general lack of adequate food containers has become the "new normal". Unfortunately it looks like delays are not avoidable.
The harvest in the world's leading Robusta producer is complete, and farmers sell their coffee to local traders and exporters, carefully monitoring international prices. The expected production volume for the 21/22 crop ranges about 30+ million bags. Hot and warm weather affects Vietnam's central coffee-producing regions of Dak Lak, Gia Lai, Lam Dong, and Dak Nong. Some rains are expected and will be more than welcome as the soil craves water to restore its humidity.
Some exporters have experimented with bulk shipments, which proves to be a viable alternative for container bottlenecks. Port authorities in Vietnam proactively reach out to China to submit cargo clearance information on time to avoid further congestion.
Papua New Guinea
Politicians are preparing for the General Elections that will take place from June 11 through June 24, 2022. Voters will elect 111 members of the National Parliament.
The lower altitude areas have already begun with the harvest, and in the higher altitude regions around Mt. Hagen, the pickings are starting too. Weather conditions in the Eastern Highlands have slowed down the maturation process, and hence the harvest has not yet entered its full dynamics.
Activities at the port are slow and delayed as bookings are re-scheduled without any notice.