Coffee Market: what happened last week – and where are we heading?
One thing has hardly escaped the attention of anyone keeping a close eye on the coffee market in recent weeks: the extraordinary volatility on the coffee exchanges. But more on that later. Because there is another constant. Less spectacular, perhaps, but with far more persistent consequences: stubborn inflation in the United States and Europe.
Its effects are already being felt. Central banks are fighting inflation with high interest rates. Borrowing is becoming more expensive, and businesses are paying more to finance their operations. Add wars, geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices to the equation, and you have the ingredients for a rather unpleasant cocktail: a soaring cost of living, expensive energy and economies that, in many places, are barely moving forward.
In just two weeks, on November 3, Americans will head to the polls for the midterm elections. And American voters, as we know, tend to vote with their wallets. Across the Atlantic, nerves are equally frayed. Images of demonstrations and riots on the streets of France reveal just how tense the mood has become.
On both sides of the Atlantic, many people are discovering the same uncomfortable truth: there is far too much month left at the end of the money.
Low-income households are being hit particularly hard. Wages and salaries are struggling to keep pace with rising living costs. People are cutting back wherever they can.
Fortunately, coffee remains one of those little pleasures that people are reluctant to give up. But the way they consume it is changing. The coffee market is becoming increasingly K-shaped.
It is the middle of the market that is feeling the squeeze. Consumers who have to watch every euro/dollar/pound when doing their weekly grocery shopping are increasingly turning to cheaper coffees. Not necessarily because they taste better, but because the entire shopping basket has become so much more expensive. Coffee still makes it into the trolley. Preferably, though, with a bright red discount sticker attached.
At the other end of the consumer spectrum, life looks rather different. Those fortunate enough not to worry too much about grocery prices continue to indulge in high-quality coffees. After all, a good cup of coffee can brighten even the darkest autumn day. Whether that cup costs 30 or 60 cents to make at home makes little difference to these consumers.
One is looking for the cheapest coffee. The other for the best. And the middle is getting squeezed.
Which brings us back to volatility on the coffee exchanges.
The market currently reminds me of a beach at the very lowest point of the tide. The water has retreated far out to sea. The tide will eventually turn, but for now, there is little sign of it coming back.
Something similar is happening with coffee inventories in consuming countries. Reports of declining certified exchange stocks attract considerable attention. Meanwhile, increasing volumes of coffee from Brazil's new crop are arriving. The record harvest is making its way across the Atlantic in a steady stream, bound for North America and Europe.
Yet a substantial share of this coffee apparently never reaches the certified exchange warehouses. Instead, it goes straight to the roasters. As a result, visible stocks are recovering more slowly than one might expect given the size of Brazil's harvest.
The coffee is coming. Just not necessarily to the places where the exchange counts it.
Against this backdrop, it takes very little news to set the markets in motion. Drought in Indonesia, the potential consequences of a strong El Niño, or the ongoing conflict surrounding the Strait of Hormuz all provide plenty of material for fresh speculation. And the algorithms seem only too happy to oblige.
On Friday, following a modest rally, the December Arabica contract (KCZ26) reached a new six-week high of 311.30 c/lb. It subsequently surrendered some of its gains and headed into the weekend at 305.60 c/lb, up 6.5% on the week.
Robusta, by contrast, was considerably more restrained. The beginning of the harvest in Vietnam is likely easing some concerns about future supply. The market closed slightly lower on the week at 3,414 USD/MT.
Plenty of movement, then. But still no clear direction.
As usual, the following table contains the most relevant coffee market data. We update it weekly.

Origin News: Asia Pacific
Vietnam
In Vietnam, the 2026/27 coffee harvest has begun and is expected to peak in November and December.
While concerns about a potential strong El Niño have shaped weather discussions this year, conditions in Vietnam have been favorable in recent months. Abundant rainfall has maintained good soil moisture levels and supported cherry development in the Central Highlands.
Forecasts for the upcoming crop are therefore strong. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service currently projects a slight increase in Vietnam's 2026/27 coffee production to approximately 32.5 million bags, up from 31.7 million bags in the previous crop year. Robusta continues to dominate, accounting for around 96% of the country's total forecasted output, or approximately 31.4 million bags.
As a major coffee producer, Vietnam will remain in focus in the coming months. Particular attention will be on weather developments in the Central Highlands, especially the potential impact of El Niño on the final stages of the harvest.
There are no significant updates on the logistics front.
Indonesia
Indonesia is entering its rainy season, which typically runs from November to March. The rainfall is much needed after an intense dry season, with conditions attributed to El Niño. Unfortunately, numerous wildfires have been reported.
In Sumatra, conditions have been less dry, particularly in the northern regions, where daily rainfall remains in the forecast.
Harvest timing varies significantly across Indonesia's islands. While the Robusta harvest has come to an end and harvesting in Sulawesi, Bali, and Java is complete, cherries have been ripening in Sumatra. The main harvest in Aceh and North Sumatra is now taking off.
Overall, Indonesia's coffee production is expected to be lower. The damage caused by Cyclone Senyar last year continues to affect the sector. In addition to losses on farms, infrastructure damage remains a challenge, with roads and bridges still undergoing repairs. This continues to keep domestic transport costs elevated.
India
India is currently in its monsoon season, a critical period for the country. The rains replenish reservoirs, sustain water supplies, support major agricultural crops, and contribute to power generation.
According to India's Ministry of Earth Sciences, the challenging weather conditions are linked to El Niño and the effects are already being felt across the country, both in power generation and in the agricultural sector.
These adverse weather conditions may disrupt the development of the new crop, which usually starts at the of the year. According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, the 2026/2027 coffee harvest is projected to decline slightly due to the weather volatility and climate-related stress.
There are no significant updates from the ports of Cochin or Mangalore.
Production Estimates in Asia Pacific
























































































































